Hypothesis 2: Assuming Hypothesis 1 is correct; the remaining members in the movement would be on the more extreme end of the spectrum. They would be the type to hold out to the bitter end because they have bought into the concepts of their movement to such a degree that they are willing to disbelieve facts and even their own minds in order to not admit to themselves that they have been wrong. They must also move to a more extreme position to attract people who are looking for organizations that are so charismatic that they “must know what they are doing.”
Well, Trinity College in Hartford today published their American Religious Identification Survey. The results, while a positive step for Secularism, are a mixed bag. The ARIS 2008 survey was carried out during February-November 2008 and collected answers from 54,461 respondents who were questioned in English or Spanish. Its broadest conclusion is that, “The American population self-identifies as predominantly Christian but Americans are slowly becoming less Christian.” The troubling issue is that while Christianity is on the decline, evangelicalism numbers are soaring. Perhaps my two hypothesis are true?
Some highlights from the study with my comments in bold:
86% of American adults identified as Christians in 1990 and 76% in 2008. Going down, good. Still 76%...not so good.
The challenge to Christianity in the U.S. does not come from other religions but rather from a rejection of all forms of organized religion. Good.
The historic mainline churches and denominations have experienced the steepest declines while the non-denominational Christian identity has been trending upward particularly since 2001. Wait for it…
34% of American adults considered themselves "Born Again or Evangelical Christians" in 2008. And the number of people associated with mega-churches has skyrocketed from less than 200,000 in 1990 to more than 8 million in the latest survey. And there we have it. As religion declines the remaining practitioners move away from the mainline churches and into the more charismatic type of church that lets them hold onto their beliefs. Do you realize how this compares to Europe’s numbers?
The U. S. population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, with one out of every five Americans failing to indicate a religious identity in 2008. Good.
The "Nones" (no stated religious preference, atheist, or agnostic) continue to grow, though at a much slower pace than in the 1990s, from 8.2% in 1990, to 14.1% in 2001, to 15.0% in 2008.
Asian Americans are substantially more likely to indicate no religious identity than other racial or ethnic groups.
One sign of the lack of attachment of Americans to religion is that 27% do not expect a religious funeral at their death. I expect a corporate one. This funeral brought to you by Coca Cola and Arby’s.
Based on their stated beliefs rather than their religious identification in 2008, 70% of Americans believe in a personal God, roughly 12% of Americans are atheist (no God) or agnostic (unknowable or unsure), and another 12% are deistic (a higher power but no personal God). So while 76% of the people surveyed said that they were Christian, only 70% of all people even believe in a personal god. I guess they are “Colbert Christians” ™. (Stephen Colbert invented the concept of truthiness. Basically it is used to describe things that a person claims to know intuitively or "from the gut" without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts.) I guess many people want to feel Christian even if the facts of their own personal beliefs run contrary to the central tenants of Christianity.
Sadly, I wish that this were the only explanation. The more probable cause is that there are hundreds of thousands or even millions of people who are atheistic but are too terrified of “coming out” to their friends, family, or even themselves. Thus, when asked, they instinctively say "I'm Christian," but when asked questions designed to expose their beliefs without going through the layer of "What religion are you" they unknowingly expose their true beliefs. (See The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins for a further discussion of the sad reality of children raised to belive in fairy tales and the pain it causes them when they grow up and start questioning.)
The percentage of Catholics in the United States has remained steady at about one in four since 1990, while the percentage of other Christians has plummeted from 60 percent to 50 percent. Well, Galileo would understand the obstinance of the Catholic Church.
From a related CNN.com article with my comments in bold:
The rise in evangelical Christianity is contributing to the rejection of religion altogether by some Americans, said Mark Silk of Trinity College.
"In the 1990s, it really sunk in on the American public generally that there was a long-lasting 'religious right' connected to a political party, and that turned a lot of people the other way," he said of the link between the Republican Party and groups such as the Moral Majority and Focus on the Family.
"In an earlier time, people who would have been content to say, 'Well, I'm some kind of a Protestant,' now say 'Hell no, I won't go,'" he told CNN.
This is encouraging. It shows me that many people are seeing that religious beliefs lead to - or at least allow - a general tendency towards conservatism and a closing of the mind to rational thought.
Silk also said the revelation that some Catholic priests had sexually abused children -- and senior figures in the church hierarchy had helped to hide it -- drove some Catholics away from religion. I agree that people who prey on children are the worst of the worst. It is instructive to note, however, that aiding Adolf Hitler and 600 years of the dark ages didn’t make large numbers of people leave the Catholic Church and terrorizing kid’s minds for centuries didn’t do it either. But you touch a kid’s body and it is game over.
And, he said, it is now more socially acceptable than it once was to admit having no religion.This is what we have been working towards. The Secular Lobby is bigger than the Jewish Lobby or the NAACP and many other powerful lobbies. Yet we are the true "third rail" of the poitical system.
"You're not declaring yourself a total pariah. The culture has changed in a way that makes it easier to say, 'No, I don't have a religion. Even in the past year, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama feel obliged to talk about 'those of no faith,' " he pointed out. And yet three Republican nominees for President of the United States of America do not believe in evolution. Obama mentioned people without faith in his inaugural address in January, making him the first president to do so. And to think that the vast majority of our founding fathers were definitely not Christians. Also see here.
Still, Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council, remained hopeful that people will return to their faith, noting there was a less dramatic decline in those affiliating themselves with a religion this decade than in the 1990s. Perkins told Lou Dobbs he sees that decline easing, and he thinks soon religion will be an even greater part of people's lives. "If this poll is taken next year will the outcome be different?" he asked. "As the economy goes downward, I think people are going to be driven to religion." Wow…. Wow. I really think he said it all. I imagine many preists at the start of the Dark ages said something similar: “We risk losing all of humanity’s learnings over the last 9,000 years in a death spiral into ignorance, but look on the bright side, we will have more people attending church out of fear and desperation!”
UPDATE: After a technical issue and an absence, I have had to re-post all of my old posts. As a result there will be many posts listed as published today, Dec 3, 2009, that were posted sometime earlier in the year, but I do not know the exact date. this post is one of them.
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